University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment — UoM Index USA

Marek 2024 luty startuje UoM Consumer Sentiment monitoring. Pre-monitoring: Conference Board Consumer Confidence tylko. 4-mies systematic UoM 2x miesiąc release (preliminary + final) + sub-indexes (Current Conditions + Expectations forward). EUR/USD signal predictive. +7% performance. Niche consumer fundamental. Oto framework.

UoM Consumer Sentiment definicja

University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index = UoM Survey of Consumers. 1946+ longest-running consumer survey USA. 500+ telephone interviews monthly. 2x miesiąc release: preliminary mid-month + final end-month. Sub-indexes: Current Conditions Index + Expectations Index (predictive forward-looking).

UoM sub-indexes

"UoM 2 sub-indexes: 1) Current Conditions Index (40% headline weight) - jak konsument ocenia current finances + buying conditions, 2) Expectations Index (60% headline weight) - jak konsument ocenia future 1Y + 5Y. Expectations = forward-looking predictive. Composite headline weighted 40/60. Inflation expectations also tracked (1Y + 5-10Y consumer)."

Inflation expectations sub-index

1Y inflation expectations

UoM 1Y inflation expectations consumer survey. 2022 peak 5.4%, 2024 declining 3.0%. Fed monitor jako market-based break-even alternative.

5-10Y inflation expectations

UoM 5-10Y inflation expectations (long-term anchored). 2022 peak 3.2%, 2024 = 3.0%. Fed favorite: anchored expectations = credible monetary policy.

Trader implication

UoM inflation expectations wzrost → Fed hawkish → USD wzmacnia. UoM expectations spadek → Fed dovish → USD słabnie. Powell 2022 used UoM as evidence inflation concern.

Marek 4-mies case study

Najczęstsze błędy

1. UoM single release reaction (need preliminary + final confirmation)
2. Headline tylko (NIE sub-indexes breakdown)
3. Expectations vs Current Conditions ignored (predictive vs reactive)
4. Inflation expectations sub-index ignored (Fed favorite)
5. NIE Conference Board confirmation (cross-check)

2022 czerwiec 50.0 historic low

• Czerwiec 2022 UoM 50.0: lowest ever recorded (since 1946)
• Reasons: 8.5% CPI peak + gas prices $5/gal + Fed hawkish surprise
• Comparison: 2008 GFC low 55.3, 1980 stagflation 51.7
• Recovery 2023-2024: 65-75 range (Fed credibility + inflation cooling)
• Trader lesson: extreme readings = mean reversion opportunity

UoM vs Conference Board divergence

UoM vs CB Consumer Confidence 2023+ divergence emerged. UoM 65-70 niskie vs CB 100+ wysokie. Reasons: UoM 500+ phone (older demographic + inflation sensitive) vs CB 3000+ online (younger + job market focused). 2024 reconvergence. Trader: UoM lepiej dla inflation expectations + Fed signal, CB lepiej dla labor market + spending intentions. Both = complementary signals. Niche fundamental layered analysis - Marek experienced UoM Expectations divergence vs CB = leading indicator + double signal validation.

Wnioski

University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment = UoM Survey of Consumers. 1946+ longest USA.

500+ telephone interviews monthly. 2x miesiąc release: preliminary + final.

2 sub-indexes: Current Conditions (40% weight) + Expectations Index (60% weight forward).

Inflation expectations sub-index: 1Y + 5-10Y consumer. Fed favorite anchored expectations metric.

2022 czerwiec 50.0 LOWEST ever (8.5% CPI + gas $5/gal + Fed hawkish). Historic.

2020-2024 cycle: COVID 71.8 → reopening 85.5 → inflation 50.0 → stable 70-75.

Trader signal: Expectations surprise = USD direction. Inflation expectations Fed monitor.

Wniosek: UoM Consumer Sentiment niche fundamental tool consumer USA. 1946+ longest history. Expectations Index forward-looking predictive. Inflation expectations Fed favorite. Marek 4-mies +7% EUR/USD. Łącz z Conference Board CCI + ISM Services + GDPNow + retail sales. Top 5% trader trait + community + dyscyplina + consumer fundamental layered analysis.

Powiązane: CB LEI, ISM Non-Manufacturing, GDPNow.