Conference Board Leading Indicators — CB LEI 10-component USA

Marek 2024 lipiec startuje Conference Board LEI monitoring. Pre-monitoring: single indicators (ISM, NFP separately). 4-mies systematic CB LEI 10-component composite + recession predictor 6-9 mies + Fed dovish signal. EUR/USD +8% performance. Niche fundamental tool. Conference Board 1916+ tradycja. Oto framework.

CB LEI definicja

Conference Board LEI = Leading Economic Indicators composite USA. 1968+ release monthly T+18 days. 10 komponentów composite (równe wagi). Recession predictor 6-9 mies forward. Conference Board nonprofit 1916+ tradycja New York (1500+ corporate members globally). NIE government agency = independent forecasts.

CB LEI 10 komponentów

"CB LEI 10 components: 1) Avg weekly hours manufacturing, 2) Initial jobless claims, 3) New orders consumer goods, 4) ISM New Orders index, 5) New orders capital goods nondefense, 6) Building permits, 7) S&P 500, 8) Leading Credit Index (LCI), 9) Yield curve spread (10Y - 3M Treasury), 10) Consumer expectations index. Composite calculation równe wagi monthly."

Recession predictor mechanism

3-mies consecutive decline

CB LEI spadek 3+ mies consecutive = recession warning signal. Historyczne precedents: 2007 (przed Great Recession), 2019 (przed COVID), 2022-2023 (Fed hawkish cycle).

Yield curve component

10Y - 3M Treasury spread (komponent 9). Inversion (spread negatywny) = strong recession signal. 2022-2023 inversion deep -1.5%. Historical 100% precision recession 6-18 mies forward.

Trader implication

CB LEI sustained decline = Fed dovish probability + USD słabnie + EUR/USD wzrost + 10Y yield ↓. Pre-recession signal trader macro positioning.

Marek 4-mies case study

Najczęstsze błędy

1. NIE CB LEI monitoring (single indicators only)
2. Single month spadek panik (need 3-mies consecutive)
3. Yield curve component ignored (strongest signal)
4. NIE Coincident Index confirmation (current state)
5. False positive ignored (2023 no recession)

CB LEI vs OECD CLI vs ECRI

• CB LEI: USA 10-component 1968+ classic
• OECD CLI: 35+ krajów Composite Leading Indicators
• ECRI WLI: Economic Cycle Research Institute Weekly Leading Index
• NBER recession dating: official US recession confirmer
• CB LEI trader: primary US forecast tool

2022-2023 false positive

CB LEI 2022-2023 spadek -10% YoY = recession warning. ALE 2023 no recession (soft landing). False positive rare (7/9 historical precision). Reasons: 1) Fed hawkish bez recession (Powell precision), 2) Strong labor market (NFP > 200k monthly), 3) Consumer spending resilience (housing wealth + COVID savings), 4) Service sector boom (ISM Services 53-55). 2024 stabilization CB LEI +1% recovery. Marek experienced: false positive NIE eliminuje signal (need confluence ISM + jobless claims + housing).

Wnioski

Conference Board LEI = Leading Economic Indicators composite USA. 1968+ monthly.

10 komponentów composite (równe wagi). Recession predictor 6-9 mies forward.

Komponenty: weekly hours mfg, jobless claims, ISM, building permits, S&P 500, yield curve, consumer expectations.

3-mies consecutive decline = recession warning. Yield curve inversion strongest signal.

Historyczna precision 7/9 recessions predicted. 2023 false positive (soft landing).

Trader signal: CB LEI sustained decline = Fed dovish + USD słabnie + EUR/USD wzrost.

Marek 4-mies case: single indicators → CB LEI composite + yield curve, +8% performance EUR/USD.

Wniosek: Conference Board LEI niche fundamental composite tool USA. 10 komponentów + recession predictor 6-9 mies. Yield curve inversion strongest signal. NIE government data (Conference Board nonprofit independent). Marek 4-mies +8%. Łącz z ISM PMI + GDPNow + TIPS break-even + Case-Shiller. Top 5% trader trait + community + dyscyplina + macro fundamental composite analysis.

Powiązane: ISM Non-Manufacturing, GDPNow, TIPS.