ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI — headline >50 expansion USA

Marek 2024 luty startuje ISM Non-Manufacturing headline monitoring. Pre-monitoring: ISM Manufacturing tylko (20% PKB). 4-mies systematic ISM Services Non-Manufacturing 80% PKB USA + 4 sub-indexes (Business Activity, New Orders, Employment, Supplier Deliveries). EUR/USD signal predictive. +10% performance. Oto framework.

ISM Non-Manufacturing definicja

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI = Institute for Supply Management indeks usług USA. 1997+ monthly. Headline >50 = expansion, <50 = contraction. Services = 80% PKB USA (vs Manufacturing 20%). Survey 400+ supply executives 18 industries non-manufacturing (retail, finance, healthcare, education, transport, hospitality, etc.).

4 sub-indexes headline

"ISM Non-Manufacturing headline = composite z 4 sub-indexes weighted: 1) Business Activity (25%), 2) New Orders (25%), 3) Employment (25%), 4) Supplier Deliveries (25%). Plus additional indicators: Prices Paid (inflation signal), Backlogs, Imports, Exports. Trader monitor headline + Prices Paid + Employment (NFP precursor)."

Headline > 50 vs < 50 interpretacja

Expansion > 50

Headline > 50 = services sector expanding. > 55 = strong expansion. > 60 = peak (rzadkie). Fed hawkish probability + USD wzmacnia + EUR/USD spadek + 10Y yield ↑.

Contraction < 50

Headline < 50 = services sector contracting. < 45 = recession warning. < 42 = recession confirmed (2008, 2020 precedents). Fed dovish + USD słabnie + EUR/USD wzrost + 10Y yield ↓.

Neutral 50 zone

48-52 = neutral zone (low signal). Trader wait additional data confirmation (NFP, retail sales, CPI). Pre-release expectations vs actual surprise = main signal.

Marek 4-mies case study

Najczęstsze błędy

1. NIE ISM Services monitoring (Manufacturing tylko)
2. Headline bez consensus comparison (no benchmark)
3. Sub-indexes ignored (Prices Paid, Employment)
4. 50 threshold absolutyzm (kontekst trend)
5. NIE 3rd business day timing aware

ISM vs S&P Global PMI

• ISM Services PMI: 1997+ Institute Supply Management 400+ execs
• S&P Global Services PMI: Markit 2010+ 400+ companies (different sample)
• ISM bardziej tradycyjny: Fed favorite, Wall Street standard
• S&P Global przemysłowy: wcześniej Markit, dane globalne
• Trader oba: ISM primary + S&P Global confirmation

Prices Paid + Employment sub-indexes

Prices Paid sub-index = ISM Services inflation signal. > 60 = inflation pressure. < 50 = deflationary pressure. Fed monitor + USD signal. Employment sub-index = NFP precursor (Non-Farm Payrolls release Friday week 1 month). > 55 = strong job growth, < 50 = job losses warning. Marek experienced: Prices Paid > 65 sustained + Employment > 55 → Fed hawkish probability + USD strong. Niche fundamental layered analysis.

Wnioski

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI headline = Services 80% PKB USA indicator.

>50 = expansion, <50 = contraction. 1997+ Institute Supply Management.

4 sub-indexes weighted 25% each: Business Activity + New Orders + Employment + Supplier Deliveries.

Additional indicators: Prices Paid (inflation), Backlogs, Imports, Exports.

2020-2024 cycle: COVID 41.8 → reopening 64.1 peak → cooling 54.5 → stable 53.5.

Trader signal: headline surprise vs consensus = USD direction. Release 3rd business day 10:00 ET.

Marek 4-mies case: Manufacturing only → Services 80% PKB, +10% EUR/USD performance.

Wniosek: ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI headline najważniejszy USA fundamental indicator. Services 80% PKB. Headline + 4 sub-indexes + Prices Paid + Employment NFP precursor. Trader EUR/USD signal predictive + 10Y yield reakcja. Marek 4-mies +10%. Łącz z ISM Manufacturing + S&P Global PMI + GDPNow + retail sales. Top 5% trader trait + community + dyscyplina + macro fundamental services-aware.

Powiązane: ISM Services, ISM Services vs Manufacturing, GDPNow.