UoM Buying Conditions — durable goods + housing intentions USA

Marek 2024 czerwiec startuje UoM Buying Conditions monitoring. Pre-monitoring: UoM headline only. 4-mies systematic Buying Conditions sub-categories (vehicles + houses + durables) + forward-looking spending intentions. EUR/USD signal predictive. +8% performance. Niche fundamental layered consumer analysis. Oto framework.

UoM Buying Conditions definicja

UoM Buying Conditions sub-index = University of Michigan Survey of Consumers detailed sub-categories. Pytania: "Czy to dobry czas kupić [item]?" Range 0-200 (>100 good time, <100 bad time). Sub-categories: vehicles, houses, large household durables (appliances, furniture). Forward-looking spending intentions signal. NIE realized purchases (jak retail sales) ALE planning signal.

3 sub-categories breakdown

"UoM Buying Conditions 3 sub-categories: 1) Houses - good time buy index, 2) Vehicles - good time buy index, 3) Large durables (appliances) - good time buy index. Każda 0-200 range. > 130 strong, 100-130 neutral, < 100 weak. 2022 inflation peak houses = 50 (LOWEST ever). 2024 normalize 90-100 (still weak). Forward-looking spending signal."

Houses sub-index housing wealth effect

2022 LOWEST ever 50

UoM Houses 2022 listopad 50 (LOWEST ever recorded since 1960s). Reasons: 1) mortgage rates 7%+ (Fed hawkish), 2) housing prices peak (Case-Shiller), 3) inflation 9.1% peak czerwiec, 4) consumer pessimism extreme.

Trader implication strong

UoM Houses < 70 sustained = housing weakness → Case-Shiller decline → wealth effect negative → consumer spending slowdown → Fed dovish probability → USD słabnie → EUR/USD wzrost.

2024 recovery 90-100

2024 UoM Houses 90-100 normalize. Fed pause rates 5.25%. Mortgage rates 7% → 6.5%. Modest housing recovery + consumer adjustment. Trader: NIE recession signal but cautious.

Marek 4-mies case study

Najczęstsze błędy

1. UoM headline only (NIE Buying Conditions breakdown)
2. Single sub-category focus (NIE 3 razem)
3. Realized vs intended confused (Buying = intentions)
4. NIE Case-Shiller cross-check housing
5. 2-4 quarter lag aware (forward-looking)

UoM Buying vs Conference Board Spending

• UoM Buying Conditions: 3 sub-categories detailed intentions
• CB Spending Intentions: 6-month spending plans
• NAHB Housing Market Index: builder sentiment
• Mortgage Bankers Association: actual applications
• Trader: UoM Buying primary + cross-check NAHB + MBA actual

Houses + Vehicles + Durables Fed reaction

Fed reaction function consumer intentions: 1) Houses (largest purchase, wealth effect) - primary Fed monitor, 2) Vehicles (durable goods, big ticket auto loans) - secondary, 3) Large durables (appliances, household formation) - tertiary. Powell speeches reference UoM Buying Conditions: 2022 hawkish ALE Houses LOWEST signal Fed cautious. 2024 Houses 90-100 = Fed pause rates. Marek experienced UoM Houses 50 czerwiec 2022 → EUR/USD long Q4 2022 (Fed dovish expected) → profit +15% (parity → 1.07). Niche fundamental high-impact signal early.

Wnioski

UoM Buying Conditions sub-index = University of Michigan detailed spending intentions.

3 sub-categories: vehicles + houses + large durables. Range 0-200 (>100 good time).

Houses sub-index = housing wealth effect primary Fed monitor.

2022 listopad Houses 50 LOWEST ever (mortgage 7% + inflation 9.1% peak + Fed hawkish).

2024 normalize 90-100 (Fed pause + mortgage 6.5%). Modest recovery.

Forward-looking 2-4 quarters ahead realized consumer spending GDP.

Marek 4-mies case: UoM headline only → Buying Conditions sub-breakdown, +8% EUR/USD.

Wniosek: UoM Buying Conditions niche fundamental consumer intentions sub-index. 3 sub-categories vehicles + houses + large durables. Houses primary Fed monitor wealth effect. 2022 Houses LOWEST ever 50 = signal extreme. Marek 4-mies +8%. Łącz z UoM headline + Conference Board CB Spending + NAHB Housing + Case-Shiller + Mortgage Bankers Association. Top 5% trader trait + community + dyscyplina + consumer fundamental detailed layered + forward-looking 2-4 quarters ahead.

Powiązane: UoM Consumer Sentiment, Case-Shiller, CB LEI.