Existing Home Sales — top USA housing indicator

21 marca 2024 NAR Existing Home Sales 4.38M annualized vs 4.20M forecast. Beat. EUR/USD -20 pip USD strong moderate. Housing 15% USA GDP. Position trader event. Pokazujemy framework.

Existing Home Sales basics

Existing Home Sales = NAR (National Association Realtors) monthly. Mid-month release, 14:00 GMT. Pre-owned homes (NIE new construction). 90% USA housing market.

Mortgage rates correlation

„30-year mortgage rate up 1% = home sales down 10-15%. 2022 mortgage 3% → 7% = sales -30%. 2024 sales 4M units (vs 5-6M pre-2020). Mortgage rates top driver."

Sub-data

• Median home price: $395k 2024
• Inventory: 1.07M units
• Months of supply: 3.0 (balanced 5-6)
• Days on market: 38 days
• First-time buyers: 26% (vs 40% historical)

3 setupy

Setup 1 — Surprise day-trade

Surprise > 200k = USD direction. Day-trade WR 60%, R:R 1:1.5. Smaller niż NFP.

Setup 2 — Mortgage rates correlation

10Y Treasury yield up = mortgage rates up = home sales down 1-2 mies. lag. Position trade.

Setup 3 — Trend confirmation

3 mies. consecutive declining sales = recession warning. USD weak position 4-12 weeks.

Common mistakes

1. Treating jako NFP-level event (smaller)
2. NIE mortgage rates correlation
3. Day-trading 5+ hours post (event fades)
4. Ignoring sub-data (inventory, days market)

vs Building Permits

Building Permits leads Home Sales 6-12 mies. Combined picture:

• Building Permits = future construction
• Existing Home Sales = current sales
• New Home Sales = different report
• Top combo: leading + lagging picture

Tools

• NAR website (free release)
• FRED historical data
• ForexFactory calendar
• Bloomberg/Reuters analysis

Wnioski

Existing Home Sales = USA monthly housing indicator. NAR mid-month release.

Housing 15% USA GDP. Mortgage rates top correlation (30-year rate up = sales down).

2024 sales 4M units (vs 5-6M pre-2020). Mortgage 7-8% impact.

3 setupy: surprise day-trade (60%), mortgage rates correlation, trend confirmation recession.

Common mistakes: NFP-level treatment, NIE mortgage rates, day-trading post 5h, ignoring sub-data.

vs Building Permits: leads 6-12 mies. Combined leading + lagging picture.

Tools: NAR, FRED, ForexFactory, Bloomberg.

Konkluzja: niche moderate USA event. Position trader + recession leading signal. Combine z Building Permits + mortgage rates dla full housing picture.

Powiązane: Retail Sales, CPI vs PMI vs GDP, GDP vs GNP.