Empire State Manufacturing — early NY Fed signal

Jarosław Wasiński · Opublikowano: · 4 min czytania
Ostrzeżenie · YMYL Ten artykuł ma charakter wyłącznie edukacyjny i nie stanowi rekomendacji inwestycyjnej. Handel na rynku Forex wiąże się z wysokim ryzykiem utraty kapitału — według ESMA 74–89% rachunków detalicznych traci pieniądze.

15 marca 2024 12:30 GMT Empire State Manufacturing Survey -20.9 vs -7.0 forecast. Surprise -13.9 pkt dovish. EUR/USD +30 pip USD weak. NY Fed niche manufacturing event. Pokazujemy framework.

Empire State basics

Empire State Manufacturing Survey = New York Fed monthly. 200+ NY State manufacturing executives. Founded 2001. Mid-month release 15th, 12:30 GMT.

Diffusion index

„Diffusion index = (% reporting increase) - (% reporting decrease). ±15 range typical. > 20 strong, < -20 weak. Top focus: surprise vs forecast direction."
Empire State reading
Above 20Strong expansion, USD bullish
0-20Moderate expansion
-20 to 0Moderate contraction
Below -20Recession signal
2024 March-20.9 (recession territory)

Sub-components

  • New Orders
  • Shipments
  • Employment
  • Prices Paid (inflation)
  • Backlog
  • Forward expectations 6 mies.

Lead vs ISM

Empire State 15th miesiąca, ISM Manufacturing 1st business day next month = 1-2 weeks lead. Plus Philly Fed 3rd Thursday. Combined NY + Philly = ISM directional signal early.

3 setupy

Setup 1 — Surprise day-trade

Surprise > 5 pkt = USD direction. Day-trade WR 60%, R:R 1:2. 30-60 min reaction.

Setup 2 — Lead vs ISM positioning

Empire State + Philly Fed extreme = ISM positioning 1-2 weeks pre. WR 60%.

Setup 3 — Sub-components

Prices Paid spike = inflation signal. Employment weak = labor cooling. Niche signals.

Common mistakes

  1. Treating jako ISM-level event (smaller sample)
  2. NIE Philly Fed combination
  3. Day-trading aggressively (smaller event)
  4. Ignoring sub-components

Tools

  • NY Fed website (free release)
  • FRED historical chart
  • ForexFactory calendar
  • Bloomberg/Reuters analysis

Wnioski

Empire State Manufacturing = NY Fed monthly survey. Mid-month 15th, 12:30 GMT.

200+ NY State manufacturing executives. Founded 2001. Sample size smaller niż ISM.

Reading: > 20 strong USD bullish, < -20 recession signal USD weak.

Sub-components: New Orders, Shipments, Employment, Prices Paid, Backlog, expectations.

Lead vs ISM: 1-2 weeks earlier = early signal positioning. Combined Philly Fed + Empire State.

3 setupy: surprise day-trade (60%), lead ISM positioning, sub-components signals.

Common mistakes: ISM-level treatment, NIE Philly combination, day-trading aggressive, ignoring sub-data.

Konkluzja: niche regional Fed event. Top dla position traders + ISM Manufacturing positioning. Combined Empire State + Philly Fed dla full early manufacturing picture.

Powiązane: ISM Manufacturing, Philly Fed, CPI vs PMI.

Jarosław Wasiński
O autorze

Jarosław Wasiński

Redaktor naczelny MyBank.pl · Analityk finansowy i rynkowy

Niezależny analityk i praktyk z ponad 20-letnim doświadczeniem w sektorze finansowym. Twórca i redaktor naczelny portalu MyBank.pl, działającego od 2004 roku. Analiza fundamentalna rynków walutowych i makroekonomicznych od 2007 roku.

Źródła i bibliografia

  1. NY Fed Empire State Manufacturing · Monthly survey www.newyorkfed.org ↗

Najczęstsze pytania

Empire State vs Philly Fed?
Both regional Fed surveys. Empire State NY Fed mid-month. Philly Fed 3rd Thursday. Combined = early ISM signal. Trader monitoring oba.

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