PPI vs CPI — która inflacja ważniejsza dla Fed

14 marca 2024 PPI release 0.6% m/m vs 0.3% forecast. Hawkish surprise. 12 marca CPI 0.4% m/m vs 0.3% forecast — też hawkish. Both confirm sticky inflation. EUR/USD -100 pip USD long. Trader z PPI + CPI awareness = direct setup. Pokazujemy framework comparison.

Definicje

PPI (Producer Price Index) = wholesale prices producers w supply chain. Surowce + intermediate + finished goods. Monthly BLS Thursday.

CPI (Consumer Price Index) = retail prices consumers pay. Final goods + services. Monthly BLS Tuesday/Wednesday.

Lead chain mechanics

„PPI rising → producers raise prices → retailers raise prices → CPI rising 1-3 mies. later. Reverse PPI cooling → producers margin compress → retailers eventually cut → CPI cooling."

Fed weight

• CPI top metric: Fed dual mandate — price stability
• Core CPI: top sub-metric (sticky inflation)
• PCE Core: Fed preferred actually (Personal Consumption Expenditures)
• PPI niche: lower direct policy impact
• Hierarchy: PCE Core > Core CPI > Headline CPI > Core PPI > Headline PPI

Trading setups

3 setupy

Setup 1 — PPI early signal

PPI surprise > 0.2% = position bias 1-3 mies. ahead CPI follow. Position trade. WR 60%.

Setup 2 — CPI primary day-trade

CPI surprise > 0.2% = USD direction. Day-trade WR 70%, R:R 1:2.5. Top event.

Setup 3 — PPI-CPI divergence

PPI cool + CPI hot = retailers margin pressure unsustainable. Cooling CPI ahead. Counter-trend possible.

2024 March case

• March 12 CPI 0.4% vs 0.3% (hawkish surprise)
• March 14 PPI 0.6% vs 0.3% (hawkish surprise)
• Both confirm sticky inflation
• Fed pause-longer signal
• EUR/USD -100 pip USD long

Common mistakes

1. Trading PPI jako primary (CPI bigger)
2. Ignoring lead chain 1-3 mies.
3. NIE PCE Core tracking (Fed preferred)
4. Single release fixation (NIE trend)

Wnioski

PPI vs CPI: 2 main USA inflation metrics. PPI wholesale, CPI retail. Korelacja +0.75.

Lead chain: ISM Prices Paid → PPI → CPI → Fed. PPI leads CPI 1-3 mies.

Fed weight: PCE Core > Core CPI > Headline CPI > Core PPI > Headline PPI. CPI top policy metric.

Trading setups: PPI early signal, CPI primary direct USD impact, PPI-CPI divergence retail margin pressure.

3 setupy: PPI early signal (60% WR position), CPI primary (70% day-trade), PPI-CPI divergence niche.

2024 March: CPI 0.4% + PPI 0.6% both hawkish = -100 pip EUR/USD USD long.

Common mistakes: PPI primary treatment, ignoring lead chain, NIE PCE Core, single release.

Konkluzja: trader rozumiejący PPI vs CPI hierarchy + lead chain = top USD edge. Track oba, ważyj CPI primary, position pre-CPI based PPI early signal.

Powiązane: PPI, core CPI vs headline, ISM Prices Paid.