Elliott Wave trading framework — counting + entries 2026

Jarosław Wasiński · 10.05.2026 · 5 min czytania
Ostrzeżenie · YMYL Ten artykuł ma charakter wyłącznie edukacyjny i nie stanowi rekomendacji inwestycyjnej. Handel na rynku Forex wiąże się z wysokim ryzykiem utraty kapitału — według ESMA 74–89% rachunków detalicznych traci pieniądze.

Marek 5 marca 2024 EUR/USD wave count 4h chart. Wave 1 (Feb 1-15), 2 retracement, 3 extension, currently 4 retracement do EMA20 + 38.2% Fib + S/R 1.0850. Long entry 1.0855, SL 1.0830, TP 1.0975 (wave 5 target). 5 dni hold +120 pip. R:R 1:5. Elliott Wave advanced strategy. Pokazujemy framework.

Elliott Wave theory

Ralph Nelson Elliott 1938 „Wave Principle." Markets move 5-wave impulsive trends + 3-wave corrective patterns. Universal pattern każdy timeframe + asset.

5-3 pattern mechanics

„Impulsive 5 waves: wave 1, 3, 5 trend direction. Wave 2, 4 retracements. Corrective 3 waves: A, B, C counter-trend. Universal pattern Elliott discovered 1938."
Wave structure
Wave 1Trend start (lowest probability detection)
Wave 2Retracement, often deep (61.8% Fib)
Wave 3Extension (longest, NIE shortest)
Wave 4Retracement, shallow (38.2% Fib) = TOP entry
Wave 5Final trend (often divergence MACD)
Correction A-B-C3-wave counter-trend

Wave 4 entry — top setup

Top probability entry:

  • Wave 1, 2, 3 confirmed (visible chart)
  • Wave 4 retracement starts
  • Targets: 38.2% Fibonacci, EMA20, S/R
  • Reversal candle confirmation
  • Entry resumption wave 5 direction

Confluence factors

Wave 4 confluence
Fibonacci 38.2%Wave 4 typical retracement depth
EMA 20Dynamic support uptrend
S/R levelHorizontal confluence
Reversal candleHammer, engulfing
VolumeDeclining wave 4 = healthy

Marek case detailed

Marek wave 4 entry
Wave 1Feb 1-15 1.0750 → 1.0900 (150 pip)
Wave 2Feb 15-22 1.0900 → 1.0820
Wave 3Feb 22 - Mar 5 1.0820 → 1.1000 (extension)
Wave 4 entryMar 5-7 retracement do 1.0850
ConfluenceEMA20 + 38.2% Fib + S/R
Entry/SL/TP1.0855 / 1.0830 / 1.0975
Result 5 days+120 pip = R:R 1:5

Common mistakes

  1. Trading wave 1 (lowest probability)
  2. Counting waves wrong (subjective)
  3. NIE confluence (Fibonacci alone weak)
  4. Counter-trend counts (against major trend)
  5. Beginners attempt advanced strategy

Limitations

  • Subjective interpretation (5 traderów = 5 counts)
  • Hindsight bias clear
  • Real-time identification difficult
  • Requires 12+ mies. practice
  • Standalone weak — confluence kluczowy

Wnioski

Elliott Wave = Ralph Nelson Elliott 1938 Wave Principle. 5-3 pattern: 5 impulsive + 3 corrective.

Wave 4 entry top setup: 38.2% Fib retracement + EMA20 + S/R confluence + reversal candle.

5-3 mechanics: wave 1 start, 2 deep retracement, 3 extension longest, 4 shallow retracement (TOP entry), 5 final + divergence.

Marek EUR/USD case: wave 4 retracement 38.2% + EMA20 + S/R = +120 pip 5 days. R:R 1:5.

Confluence: Fibonacci, EMA, S/R, reversal candle, volume declining wave 4.

Common mistakes: wave 1 trading, counting wrong, NIE confluence, counter-trend, beginner attempt.

Limitations: subjective, hindsight bias, real-time difficult, 12+ mies. practice required, confluence essential.

Konkluzja: advanced niche strategy. Master S/R + price action first 12+ mies. Wave 4 entry top setup z confluence. Standalone weak — combine z technicals.

Powiązane: Elliott Wave podstawy, Fibonacci, S/R flips.

Głębsza analiza — Elliott Wave deep dive ForexMechanics.

Jarosław Wasiński
O autorze

Jarosław Wasiński

Redaktor naczelny MyBank.pl · Analityk finansowy i rynkowy

Niezależny analityk i praktyk z ponad 20-letnim doświadczeniem w sektorze finansowym. Twórca i redaktor naczelny portalu MyBank.pl, działającego od 2004 roku. Analiza fundamentalna rynków walutowych i makroekonomicznych od 2007 roku.

Źródła i bibliografia

  1. Elliott Wave Principle 1938 · Ralph Nelson Elliott www.elliottwave.com ↗

Najczęstsze pytania

Elliott Wave dla beginnerów?
NIE. Wymaga 12+ mies. study, subjective interpretation, practice. Master S/R + price action first. Elliott advanced supplement.

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