Fed Dot Plot SEP — every-quarter rate path forecast

Jarosław Wasiński · 10.05.2026 · 4 min czytania
Ostrzeżenie · YMYL Ten artykuł ma charakter wyłącznie edukacyjny i nie stanowi rekomendacji inwestycyjnej. Handel na rynku Forex wiąże się z wysokim ryzykiem utraty kapitału — według ESMA 74–89% rachunków detalicznych traci pieniądze.

12 czerwca 2024 Fed decision + SEP release. Median dot 2024 year-end: 5.10% (vs 4.60% March = -1 cut revised). Hawkish revision. Dot plot less dovish than expected. EUR/USD -50 pip USD long. Trader z dot plot calendar = direct setup. Pokazujemy framework.

Co to Dot Plot SEP

SEP = Summary of Economic Projections. Quarterly Fed publication (4 razy rocznie: March, June, September, December). 19 FOMC participants (12 voting + 7 non-voting) indicate ich forecasts.

SEP components

„SEP zawiera 4 forecasts: GDP growth, unemployment, PCE inflation, Fed Funds rate. Last = dot plot focus. Each member ich projection 2024-2027 + longer-run."
SEP forecasts
GDP growthAnnual rates 2024-2027
UnemploymentAnnual rates 2024-2027
PCE inflationAnnual rates 2024-2027
Fed Funds rateYear-end 2024-2027 (DOT PLOT)
Longer-runSteady-state assumptions
Top focusMedian dot Fed Funds

Reading dot plot

  • Median dot: middle of 19 dots = primary signal
  • Range: highest do lowest forecast = consensus quality
  • Tighter range: stronger consensus, więcej confidence
  • Wider range: dispersion, mniej confidence
  • Year-end 2024 dot: most market-relevant short-term

2024 cycle

2024 dot plot evolution
December 20232024 year-end 4.60% (75bp cuts pricing)
March 20242024 year-end 4.60% (unchanged)
June 20242024 year-end 5.10% (hawkish 50bp cuts only)
September 20242024 year-end 4.40% (dovish 100bp cuts pricing)
PatternVolatile revisions

3 setupy

Setup 1 — Hawkish revision

Median dot up 25bp+ = USD long. Day-trade 30-60 min reaction. WR 65%, R:R 1:2.

Setup 2 — Dovish revision

Median dot down 25bp+ = USD short. Same mechanics opposite. WR 65%.

Setup 3 — Range narrowing

Dispersion narrows = consensus stronger = trend confidence. Position trade 4-12 weeks.

Common mistakes

  1. Trading single dot move (NIE median focus)
  2. Ignoring range/dispersion analysis
  3. Day-trading 5+ hours (event fading)
  4. NIE comparison z press conference Powell

Tools

  • Federal Reserve SEP page (free)
  • Bloomberg/Reuters dot plot visualization
  • FXStreet/ForexFactory calendar
  • FRED historical SEP archives

Wnioski

Fed Dot Plot SEP = quarterly Fed publication. 19 FOMC participants forecasts. 4 razy rocznie.

SEP content: GDP, unemployment, PCE inflation, Fed Funds (dot plot). Median dot = market focus.

Reading: median dot primary signal, range = consensus quality, year-end 2024 most relevant.

2024 cycle: December 4.60% → March 4.60% → June 5.10% (hawkish) → September 4.40% (dovish). Volatile revisions.

3 setupy: hawkish revision (65% WR), dovish revision (65%), range narrowing (consensus position).

Common mistakes: single dot focus, ignoring dispersion, day-trading 5h+, NIE Powell comparison.

Tools: Federal Reserve free, Bloomberg visualization, FXStreet/ForexFactory.

Konkluzja: top quarterly Fed event. Median dot revision = USD direction signal. Combine z FOMC decision + Powell press conference + Minutes 3 weeks later dla full Fed picture.

Powiązane: FOMC decision, FOMC Minutes, Fed Funds rate.

Jarosław Wasiński
O autorze

Jarosław Wasiński

Redaktor naczelny MyBank.pl · Analityk finansowy i rynkowy

Niezależny analityk i praktyk z ponad 20-letnim doświadczeniem w sektorze finansowym. Twórca i redaktor naczelny portalu MyBank.pl, działającego od 2004 roku. Analiza fundamentalna rynków walutowych i makroekonomicznych od 2007 roku.

Źródła i bibliografia

  1. Federal Reserve SEP releases · Quarterly publications www.federalreserve.gov ↗

Najczęstsze pytania

Co to median dot?
Median dot = mediana 19 FOMC participants forecasts dla year-end rate. Top focus market. Hawkish/dovish revision = USD direction.

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